HAMPTON, Va. (Oct. 25, 2017) – With the 2017 Virginia election less than two weeks away, Republican nominee Ed Gillespie has an 8 percentage point lead over Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, according to a poll released today by the nationally recognized Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP).
When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 41 percent of those surveyed would vote for Gillespie and 33 for Northam. The remaining 27 percent were undecided. The key (as in last year's presidential election) are the 27 percent of the likely voters who remain Undecided. Even though Gillespie has a sizeable lead over Northam, the 27 percent of Undecided voters may mean that the race is tighter than the survey revealed.
The results of CPP polling of registered Virginia voters likely to vote Nov. 7 shows a lead for Gillespie. The poll was conducted by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) questioning 750 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote on Nov. 7 in the Virginia General Election. The poll was conducted Oct. 18 – 22 from a random sampling of 400 landline and 350 cell phones.
The results:
Q3. If the general election for Governor of Virginia were held today, for whom would you vote?
| Interviews | Percent | |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Gillespie (R) | 304 | 41% |
| Ralph Northam (D) | 245 | 33% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 201 | 27% |
| TOTAL | 750 | 100% |
The CPP poll also asked likely voters which issues are important to them as voters.
Q4. Please tell me which one issue on this list should be the top priority of the next Governor of Virginia, no matter who it is:
| Frequency | Percent | |
|---|---|---|
| Working to improve the economy and create jobs | 256 | 34% |
| Education | 135 | 18% |
| Gun control | 66 | 9% |
| Health care | 175 | 23% |
| Improving transportation infrastructure such as bridges, tunnels, and road surfaces | 95 | 13% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 21 | 3% |
| Total | 750 | 100% |
Participants were also asked questions regarding campaign advertising in the media:
Q10. Do negative campaign ads make you more or less likely to vote for the candidate who produced the ad?
| Frequency | Percent | |
|---|---|---|
| More likely | 62 | 8% |
| Less likely | 434 | 58% |
| No Impact | 222 | 30% |
| Don't know/Refused | 32 | 4% |
| Total | 750 | 100% |
Voters will decide on Virginia’s next governor on Tuesday, Nov. 7.
More than one-half (56 percent) of likely Virginia voters disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President of the United States, a number slightly higher than the national average.
Q15. Overall, do you approve or do you disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as the President of the United States?
| Frequency | Percent | |
|---|---|---|
| Approve | 296 | 39% |
| Disapprove | 419 | 56% |
| Don't know/Refused | 35 | 5% |
| Total | 750 | 100% |
Even though he is on the way out, current Gov. Terry McAuliff continues to have high approval ratings with 52 percent of likely Virginia voters surveyed approving of the job he has done in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Q16. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Terry McAuliffe is doing as the current Governor of Virginia?
| Frequency | Percent | |
|---|---|---|
| Approve | 389 | 52% |
| Disapprove | 286 | 38% |
| Don't know/Refused | 75 | 10% |
| Total | 750 | 100% |
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.2% for the full sample which was attained from the registered voter list for Virginia.
Last year’s CPP poll of Virginia’s voters in the 2016 presidential election was one of a few polls in the nation to predict correctly that Presidential Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton would win the state by a margin of 4 percent and the highly-accurate results were reported by Fox News, MSNBC, the Washington Post, New York Times, Breitbart News Network.
The HU Center for Public Policy is an objective, non-partisan source for information and solutions on a variety of topics. Along with HU’s mission of education and service, the Center for Public Policy stands to serve as the pulse of the people of Virginia. For top line results, the executive summary and more information on the Hampton University Center for Public Policy call 757-727-5426 or visit http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/.
