Hampton, Va.— Recognized nationally by Fox News, MSNBC and The Washington Post, the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll reveals that the FBI’s decision to reopen the Hillary Clinton email investigation may have triggered a boost for Donald Trump with likely voters in Virginia.
Democratic Presidential nominee Clinton had a two point lead before the email news story broke on Friday Oct. 28. She is now trailing three points behind Republican Presidential nominee Trump.
With only six days left before the November Presidential election, Trump has jumped ahead of Clinton, erasing a 12 point deficit reported by the CPP in early October. This surge for Trump demonstrates again how erratic the run for the White House has been as we head into the final days of Decision 2016. This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year, the latest poll was conducted Oct. 26-30.
When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 44 percent of those surveyed would vote for Trump and 41 percent would choose Clinton, while a high percentage of voters remain undecided (15 percent). This is a major shift from just one month ago when Clinton led Trump by 12 points. (CPP poll, October 2016 - Clinton 46 percent , Trump 34 percent).
Q4. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote:
| The Republican ticket of Donald Trump & Mike Pence |
44% |
|---|---|
| The Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine |
41% |
| Don’t Know/Refused | 15% |
| TOTAL | 100% |
It must be noted that the poll began on Wednesday, Oct. 26, with 13 days to go before the election. During this time, the news story about the FBI reopening the investigation into email servers used by Clinton was released on Friday, October 28th. While details were scarce, the news did have an impact on the data collected during this time.
Most Virginians felt the top priority of the next President of the United States, no matter who it is should be working to improve the economy (47 percent) and create jobs followed by healthcare (19 percent). Both candidates continue to be shackled to high unfavorable ratings, Trump’s numbers went down eight points (54 percent) while Clinton’s numbers went up three points (57 percent) from a CPP poll conducted just one month ago.
Q5. Please tell me which one issue on this list should be the top priority of the next President of the United States, no matter who it is.
| February 2016 | July 2016 | August 2016 | September 2016 | October 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working to improve the Economy and create jobs | 47.8% | 42.1% | 52% | 56% | 47% |
| Terrorism | 17% | 23.9% | 18% | 17% | 12% |
| Healthcare | 15% | 9.8% | 16% | 11% | 19% |
| Size of Government | 8.8% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Immigration | 7.6% | 9.5% | 4% | 6% | 7% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
Q10 & Q11. Do you believe Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump is trustworthy or not?
| August 2016 | Sept. 2016 | (D)Clinton-October 2016 | August 2016 | Sept. 2016 | (R) Trump-October 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trustworthy | 35% | 37% | 34% | 40% | 31% | 42% |
| Not | 61% | 59% | 64% | 56% | 65% | 56% |
| Don’t Know/Refused | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
Virginians are also very confident in the integrity of the voting process and system in the Commonwealth of Virginia (82 percent).
Q15a. How confident are you in the integrity of the voting process and system in the Commonwealth of Virginia?
| Interviews | Percentages | |
|---|---|---|
| Very Confident | 370 | 46% |
| Somewhat Confident | 291 | 36% |
| Not very confident | 104 | 13% |
| Not at all Confident | 33 | 4% |
| Don’t Know/Refused | 4 | 1% |
| TOTAL | 802 | 100% |
The poll was conducted by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) from October 26- 30, 2016 questioning 802 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote on November 8, 2016 in the Virginia General Election.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.57% for the full sample.
The HU Center for Public Policy is an objective, non-partisan source for information and solutions on a variety of topics. Along with HU’s mission of education and service, the Center for Public Policy stands to serve as the pulse of the people of Virginia. For top line results, the executive summary and more information on the Hampton University Center for Public Policy call 757-727-5426 or visit http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/polls/.
