Hampton University
HU Poll: Post-Debate Surge Gives Democrats Double-Digit Surge among Virginians
10/06/2016 - #53

Hampton, Va.— A post-debate surge puts the Democratic Presidential ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine 12 points ahead of Republican candidates Donald Trump and Mike Pence, according to a Hampton University poll released today.

With only 31 days left before the November Presidential election, Democratic candidate Clinton is ahead of Republican candidate Trump breaking the statistical tie reported by Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) in August.  This surge reveals how volatile the run for the White House is as the days wind down to Decision 2016.

“While every poll is a snapshot in time, the results of this poll are the result of a perfect storm of events in our nation at the time the poll was conducted: domestic terrorist attacks in New York and Minnesota, the first Presidential debate of the election cycle, the fallout and aftermath of that debate, including the controversy concerning a former beauty queen, and, an endorsement by a highly respected former GOP Virginia Senator in favor of the democratic ticket of Clinton and Kaine. Our poll numbers reflect all of those elements” said Kelly Harvey, director of the Hampton University Center for Public Policy.

When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 46 percent of those surveyed would vote for Clinton and 34 percent would choose Trump, while a high percentage of voters remain undecided (20 percent). This is a striking difference from just one month ago where Clinton led Trump by only two points, in what amounted to a statistical dead heat (CPP poll, August 2016 - Clinton 43 percent, Trump 41 percent).  Even more striking are the wide disparities of support dividing the candidates, as it relates to gender, race and party affiliation.

Q4. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote:

The Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine 46%
The Republican ticket of Donald Trump & Mike Pence 34%
Don’t Know/Refused 20%
TOTAL 100%

Q4. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote:

 MaleFemaleBlackWhiteHispanicDemocratRepublicanIndependent/Other
(D) Clinton & Kaine 39% 52% 88% 34% 56% 91% 7% 36%
(R) Trump & Pence 40% 29% 2% 44% 12% 3% 78% 31%
Don't Know /Refused 21% 19% 10% 22% 31 6% 16% 33%

And while 83 percent of those polled watched the first Presidential debate, when asked which candidate “won”, 60 percent picked Clinton as the winner over Donald Trump (18 percent) with 18 percent agreeing that neither candidate won the debate.

Q22a. Which candidate do you believe "won" the debate?

 Percent
Hillary Clinton 60%
Donald Trump 18%
Neither 18%
Don’t know/Refused 4%
Total 100%

Q16. Do you think the health of Hillary Clinton should be an issue in the presidential campaign?

 Percent
Yes 41%
No 57%
Don’t know/Refused 2%
Total 100%

Most Virginians polled feel that the health of each presidential candidate should not be an issue in the campaign, but strongly believe that involvement with personal foundations are a conflict of interest. Both candidates continue to be shackled to high Unfavorable ratings, but Clinton holds steady at 54 percent while Trump’s numbers went up seven points to 62 percent from a CPP poll conducted just one month ago.

Q18. Do you think Trump’s involvement with his personal foundation, the Donald J. Trump Foundation, is a conflict of interest for a presidential candidate?

 Percent
Yes 47%
No 42%
Don’t know/Refused 11%
Total 100%

Q19. Do you think Clinton’s involvement with her and her husband’s personal foundation, the William J. Clinton Foundation, is a conflict of interest for a presidential candidate?

 Percent
Yes 49%
No 45%
Don’t know/Refused 6%
Total 100%

Q6. Do you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?

 Percent
Very favorable 9%
Favorable 25%
Unfavorable 24%
Very unfavorable 38%
Heard of but no opinion 1%
Never heard of -
Don’t know/Refused 3%
Total 100%

Q7. Do you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

 Percent
Very favorable 14%
Favorable 29%
Unfavorable 22%
Very unfavorable 32%
Heard of but no opinion 1%
Never heard of -
Don’t know/Refused 3%
Total 101%

The poll was conducted by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) from September 28-October 2, 2016 and included 800 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote on November 8, 2016 in the Virginia General Election.

The HU Center for Public Policy is an objective, non-partisan source for information and solutions on a variety of topics. Along with HU’s mission of education and service, the Center for Public Policy stands to serve as the pulse of the people of Virginia.  For top line results, the executive summary and more information on the Hampton University Center for Public Policy call 757-727-5426 or visit http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/

Click here to view the Topline Results

Click here to view the Executive Summary

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